Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
